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Terrassa vs Peralada — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Terrassa
Terrassa
CANC
00:00
Peralada
Peralada
4/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 34Estadi Olímpic de Terrassa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Terrassa50%
×Draw28%
Peralada21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Terrassa
1.33
Peralada
0.76

Terrassa creates 75% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 110 away

creates per match

Terrassa
1.62
Peralada
1.01

allows per match

Terrassa
0.50
Peralada
1.04

finishing

Terrassa+0.00on par
Peralada+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Terrassa ↓

Peralada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Terrassa or draw
79%
Terrassa or Peralada
72%
Draw or Peralada
50%

Winning margin

Terrassa wins by 2+
24%
Peralada wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Terrassa 1+ goals
74%
Terrassa 2+ goals
38%
Terrassa 3+ goals
15%
Peralada 1+ goals
53%
Peralada 2+ goals
18%
Peralada 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Terrassa (draw refunded)
70%
Peralada (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Terrassa at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.50 · 26 matches

Peralada away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.04 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Terrassa attack 1.62 + Peralada defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.33

Peralada attack 1.01 + Terrassa defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Terrassa scores more
50%
level
28%
Peralada scores more
21%

Terrassa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Terrassa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Terrassa face Peralada (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 returns with Terrassa hosting Peralada. Match starts April 19, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Terrassa host Peralada at Estadi Olímpic de Terrassa.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.