Peralada 1–2 Terrassa: Result & Stats

Peralada

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Terrassa

S. Álvarez 86'

David Corominas 14'

Sergi Arranz 2'

12/1/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 15Estadio Municipal de Peralada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Peralada35%

×Draw28%

Terrassa37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeraladaExpected goals in this matchTerrassa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.18

Peralada

1.15

Terrassa

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 28 away

1.44

creates per match

1.36

1.00

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Peralada

1.44

Terrassa

1.36

allows per match

Peralada

1.00

Terrassa

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peralada+0.00on par

Terrassa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peralada ↓

Terrassa →

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Peralada or draw

63%

Peralada or Terrassa

72%

Draw or Terrassa

65%

Winning margin

Peralada wins by 2+

14%

Terrassa wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Peralada 1+ goals

68%

Peralada 2+ goals

32%

Peralada 3+ goals

11%

Terrassa 1+ goals

69%

Terrassa 2+ goals

33%

Terrassa 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Peralada (draw refunded)

49%

Terrassa (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Peralada at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.00 · 111 matches

Terrassa away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.86 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Peralada attack 1.44 + Terrassa defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.15

Terrassa attack 1.36 + Peralada defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Peralada scores more

35%

level

28%

Terrassa scores more

37%

Terrassa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Terrassa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Sergi Arranz

14'

David Corominas

46'

Víctor Bertomeu← Jorge Torres

68'

Kevin← Alex Fernández

75'

S. Álvarez← Guillem Jiménez

76'

David López← David Corominas

83'

Genís Blasco← Sergi Arranz

86'

S. Álvarez

89'

Arnau Ortiz← Éric Vilanova

Peralada

Terrassa

▼

⚽

▼

Corominas

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Aitor Yeto

46'▲Víctor Bertomeu←▼Jorge Torres

75'▲S. Álvarez←▼Guillem Jiménez

89'▲Arnau Ortiz←▼Éric Vilanova

Peralada substitutes

BertomeuÁlvarezOrtiz

Manager: Molist

68'▲Kevin←▼Alex Fernández

76'▲David López←▼David Corominas

83'▲Genís Blasco←▼Sergi Arranz

Terrassa substitutes

KevinLópezBlasco

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Peralada 1–2 Terrassa

Terrassa beat Peralada 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on December 1, 2019.

Goals: Sergi Arranz (2'), David Corominas (14'), S. Álvarez (86').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Peralada in Peralada.

Peralada vs Terrassa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Peralada 1–2 Terrassa