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Terracina Calcio vs Latte Dolce — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Terracina Calcio
Terracina Calcio
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Latte Dolce
Latte Dolce
9/22/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 3Stadio Comunale Bartolani di Cisterna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Terracina Calcio33%
×Draw27%
Latte Dolce40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Terracina Calcio
1.15
Latte Dolce
1.31

Latte Dolce creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 82 away

creates per match

Terracina Calcio
0.71
Latte Dolce
1.10

allows per match

Terracina Calcio
1.53
Latte Dolce
1.59

finishing

Terracina Calcio+0.00on par
Latte Dolce+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Terracina Calcio ↓

Latte Dolce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Terracina Calcio or draw
60%
Terracina Calcio or Latte Dolce
73%
Draw or Latte Dolce
67%

Winning margin

Terracina Calcio wins by 2+
13%
Latte Dolce wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Terracina Calcio 1+ goals
68%
Terracina Calcio 2+ goals
32%
Terracina Calcio 3+ goals
11%
Latte Dolce 1+ goals
73%
Latte Dolce 2+ goals
38%
Latte Dolce 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Terracina Calcio (draw refunded)
45%
Latte Dolce (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Terracina Calcio at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Latte Dolce away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.59 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Terracina Calcio attack 0.71 + Latte Dolce defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.15

Latte Dolce attack 1.10 + Terracina Calcio defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Terracina Calcio scores more
33%
level
27%
Latte Dolce scores more
40%

Latte Dolce at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Latte Dolce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Terracina Calcio 3–1 Latte Dolce

Terracina Calcio beat Latte Dolce 3-1 in Serie D - Girone G on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Bartolani di Cisterna in Cisterna di Latina.