Latte Dolce 4–2 Terracina Calcio: Result & Stats

Latte Dolce

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Terracina Calcio

1/19/2025

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 20Stadio Comunale Latte Dolce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Latte Dolce55%

×Draw23%

Terracina Calcio22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Latte DolceExpected goals in this matchTerracina Calcio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.04

Latte Dolce

1.79

Terracina Calcio

1.04

Latte Dolce creates 72% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 17 away

1.41

creates per match

0.88

1.20

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Latte Dolce

1.41

Terracina Calcio

0.88

allows per match

Latte Dolce

1.20

Terracina Calcio

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Latte Dolce+0.00on par

Terracina Calcio+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Latte Dolce ↓

Terracina Calcio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Latte Dolce or draw

78%

Latte Dolce or Terracina Calcio

77%

Draw or Terracina Calcio

45%

Winning margin

Latte Dolce wins by 2+

31%

Terracina Calcio wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Latte Dolce 1+ goals

83%

Latte Dolce 2+ goals

53%

Latte Dolce 3+ goals

26%

Terracina Calcio 1+ goals

65%

Terracina Calcio 2+ goals

28%

Terracina Calcio 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Latte Dolce (draw refunded)

71%

Terracina Calcio (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Latte Dolce at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.20 · 80 matches

Terracina Calcio away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Latte Dolce attack 1.41 + Terracina Calcio defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.79

Terracina Calcio attack 0.88 + Latte Dolce defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Latte Dolce scores more

55%

level

23%

Terracina Calcio scores more

22%

Latte Dolce at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Latte Dolce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff