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Terracina Calcio vs Albalonga — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Terracina Calcio
Terracina Calcio
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Albalonga
Albalonga
12/15/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 16Stadio Mario Colavolpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Terracina Calcio29%
×Draw27%
Albalonga44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Terracina Calcio
1.09
Albalonga
1.41

Albalonga creates 29% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Terracina Calcio
0.71
Albalonga
1.29

allows per match

Terracina Calcio
1.53
Albalonga
1.47

finishing

Terracina Calcio+0.00on par
Albalonga+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Terracina Calcio ↓

Albalonga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Terracina Calcio or draw
56%
Terracina Calcio or Albalonga
73%
Draw or Albalonga
71%

Winning margin

Terracina Calcio wins by 2+
11%
Albalonga wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Terracina Calcio 1+ goals
66%
Terracina Calcio 2+ goals
30%
Terracina Calcio 3+ goals
10%
Albalonga 1+ goals
76%
Albalonga 2+ goals
41%
Albalonga 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Terracina Calcio (draw refunded)
40%
Albalonga (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Terracina Calcio at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Albalonga away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Terracina Calcio attack 0.71 + Albalonga defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.09

Albalonga attack 1.29 + Terracina Calcio defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Terracina Calcio scores more
29%
level
27%
Albalonga scores more
44%

Albalonga at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Albalonga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Terracina Calcio 0–1 Albalonga

Albalonga beat Terracina Calcio 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on December 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Mario Colavolpe in Terracina.