Albalonga 4–0 Terracina Calcio: Result & Stats

Albalonga

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Terracina Calcio

4/27/2025

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 33Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Albalonga61%

×Draw21%

Terracina Calcio17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbalongaExpected goals in this matchTerracina Calcio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.92

Albalonga

1.96

Terracina Calcio

0.92

Albalonga creates 113% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.73

creates per match

0.88

0.96

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Albalonga

1.73

Terracina Calcio

0.88

allows per match

Albalonga

0.96

Terracina Calcio

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albalonga+0.00on par

Terracina Calcio+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albalonga ↓

Terracina Calcio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Albalonga or draw

83%

Albalonga or Terracina Calcio

79%

Draw or Terracina Calcio

39%

Winning margin

Albalonga wins by 2+

37%

Terracina Calcio wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Albalonga 1+ goals

86%

Albalonga 2+ goals

58%

Albalonga 3+ goals

31%

Terracina Calcio 1+ goals

60%

Terracina Calcio 2+ goals

23%

Terracina Calcio 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Albalonga (draw refunded)

78%

Terracina Calcio (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albalonga at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.96 · 51 matches

Terracina Calcio away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albalonga attack 1.73 + Terracina Calcio defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.96

Terracina Calcio attack 0.88 + Albalonga defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Albalonga scores more

61%

level

21%

Terracina Calcio scores more

17%

Albalonga at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Albalonga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff