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Ternana vs Lecco — Serie B 2018

Ternana
Ternana
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lecco
Lecco
2/24/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 26Stadio Libero Liberati

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ternana52%
×Draw25%
Lecco23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ternana
1.63
Lecco
1.00

Ternana creates 63% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 19 away

creates per match

Ternana
1.16
Lecco
0.84

allows per match

Ternana
1.16
Lecco
2.11

finishing

Ternana+0.00on par
Lecco+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ternana ↓

Lecco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ternana or draw
77%
Ternana or Lecco
75%
Draw or Lecco
48%

Winning margin

Ternana wins by 2+
28%
Lecco wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ternana 1+ goals
80%
Ternana 2+ goals
48%
Ternana 3+ goals
22%
Lecco 1+ goals
63%
Lecco 2+ goals
26%
Lecco 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ternana (draw refunded)
69%
Lecco (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ternana at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 58 matches

Lecco away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ternana attack 1.16 + Lecco defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.63

Lecco attack 0.84 + Ternana defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ternana scores more
52%
level
25%
Lecco scores more
23%

Ternana at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ternana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ternana 0 – 0 Lecco

Ternana and Lecco drew 0-0 in Serie B on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Libero Liberati in Terni.