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Lecco vs Ternana — Serie B 2018

Lecco
Lecco
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Ternana
Ternana
12/17/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 17Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lecco34%
×Draw25%
Ternana41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lecco
1.36
Ternana
1.52

Ternana creates 12% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 59 away

creates per match

Lecco
1.00
Ternana
1.24

allows per match

Lecco
1.79
Ternana
1.73

finishing

Lecco+0.00on par
Ternana+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecco ↓

Ternana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Lecco or draw
59%
Lecco or Ternana
75%
Draw or Ternana
66%

Winning margin

Lecco wins by 2+
15%
Ternana wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Lecco 1+ goals
74%
Lecco 2+ goals
39%
Lecco 3+ goals
16%
Ternana 1+ goals
78%
Ternana 2+ goals
45%
Ternana 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Lecco (draw refunded)
45%
Ternana (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecco at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Ternana away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.73 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecco attack 1.00 + Ternana defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.36

Ternana attack 1.24 + Lecco defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lecco scores more
34%
level
25%
Ternana scores more
41%

Ternana at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ternana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lecco vs Ternana

Ternana beat Lecco 3-2 in Serie B on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi in Lecco.