Ternana 2–3 Frosinone: Result & Stats | Serie B

Ternana

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Frosinone

A. Partipilo 34'

A. Favilli 30'

B. Kone 77'

F. Lucioni 75'

L. Garritano 6'

5/19/2023

Serie B · Round 38Stadio Libero Liberati

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Ternana34%

×Draw29%

Frosinone37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TernanaExpected goals in this matchFrosinone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.17

Ternana

1.10

Frosinone

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 117 away

1.13

creates per match

1.19

1.15

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Ternana

1.13

Frosinone

1.19

allows per match

Ternana

1.15

Frosinone

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ternana+0.00on par

Frosinone+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ternana ↓

Frosinone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ternana or draw

63%

Ternana or Frosinone

71%

Draw or Frosinone

66%

Winning margin

Ternana wins by 2+

14%

Frosinone wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ternana 1+ goals

67%

Ternana 2+ goals

30%

Ternana 3+ goals

10%

Frosinone 1+ goals

69%

Frosinone 2+ goals

33%

Frosinone 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ternana (draw refunded)

48%

Frosinone (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ternana at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.15 · 60 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.08 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ternana attack 1.13 + Frosinone defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Frosinone attack 1.19 + Ternana defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ternana scores more

34%

level

29%

Frosinone scores more

37%

Frosinone at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

A. Partipilo

Ternana · F

7.9

Match Events

6'

L. Garritano

30'

A. Favilli

34'

A. Partipilo↳ F. Paghera

45+1'

Daniel Boloca

46'

B. Kone← F. Gelli

48'

G. Capanni← A. Partipilo

58'

César Falletti

59'

A. Selvini← L. Garritano

59'

G. Borrelli← L. Moro

70'

G. Caso← R. Insigne

75'

F. Lucioni↳ A. Selvini

76'

A. Donnarumma← A. Favilli

76'

M. Proietti← F. Paghera

77'

B. Kone↳ G. Caso

81'

B. Martella← M. Coulibaly

81'

K. Kujabi← M. Cotali

82'

F. Mazzarani← M. Defendi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TernanaFrosinone

Overview

38%Possession62%

13Total Shots11

6Corners4

8Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots11

3On Target5

8Off Target4

2Blocked2

9Inside Box6

4Outside Box5

Passing

38%Possession62%

367Total Passes595

296Accurate Passes510

81%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0