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Ternana vs Frosinone — Serie B 2018

Ternana
Ternana
FT
4 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Frosinone
Frosinone
S. Pettinari 77'
A. Palumbo 47'
S. Minelli 27' (OG)
M. Proietti 21'
A. Novakovich 90+6' (pen)
F. Gatti 64'
L. Bogdan 37' (OG)
M. Rohdén 10'
4/18/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 35Stadio Libero Liberati

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Ternana34%
×Draw29%
Frosinone37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ternana
1.10
Frosinone
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 117 away

creates per match

Ternana
1.13
Frosinone
1.19

allows per match

Ternana
1.15
Frosinone
1.08

finishing

Ternana+0.00on par
Frosinone+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ternana ↓

Frosinone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ternana or draw
63%
Ternana or Frosinone
71%
Draw or Frosinone
66%

Winning margin

Ternana wins by 2+
14%
Frosinone wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ternana 1+ goals
67%
Ternana 2+ goals
30%
Ternana 3+ goals
10%
Frosinone 1+ goals
69%
Frosinone 2+ goals
33%
Frosinone 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ternana (draw refunded)
48%
Frosinone (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ternana at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.15 · 60 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.08 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ternana attack 1.13 + Frosinone defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Frosinone attack 1.19 + Ternana defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ternana scores more
34%
level
29%
Frosinone scores more
37%

Frosinone at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
F. GattiFrosinoneFrosinone · D
8.3

Match Events

10'
M. Rohdén↳ F. Gatti
21'
M. Proietti↳ A. Palumbo
27'
S. MinelliOwn goal
31'
Camillo Ciano
37'
L. BogdanOwn goal
44'
Marcus Rohdén
47'
A. Palumbo↳ A. Partipilo
52'
M. Boben← S. Diakite
61'
L. Garritano← M. Rohdén
61'
A. Novakovich← L. Canotto
64'
F. Gatti↳ A. Zerbin
67'
Daniel Boloca
72'
Luka Bogdan
72'
S. Pettinari← B. Martella
72'
L. Ghiringhelli← M. Defendi
77'
S. Pettinari↳ M. Boben
82'
M. Capuano← A. Donnarumma
82'
D. Agazzi← A. Palumbo
82'
E. Cicerelli← K. Lulić
82'
A. Tribuzzi← N. Brighenti
90'
Ilias Koutsoupias
90'
Luca Garritano
90+1'
H. Haoudi← A. Zerbin
90+6'
A. NovakovichPenalty

Possession

49%Ternana

Shots

12Ternana

Pass accuracy

48%Ternana

Statistics

TernanaFrosinone
Overview
49%Possession51%
12Total Shots17
6Corners8
10Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots17
3On Target4
4Off Target6
5Blocked7
4Inside Box14
8Outside Box3
Passing
49%Possession51%
393Total Passes411
271Accurate Passes306
69%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
10Fouls13
2Yellow Cards4
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Ternana vs Frosinone

Ternana and Frosinone drew 4-4 in Serie B on April 18, 2022.

Goals: M. Rohdén (10'), M. Proietti (21'), S. Minelli (27' o.g.), L. Bogdan (37' o.g.), A. Palumbo (47'), F. Gatti (64'), S. Pettinari (77'), A. Novakovich (90+6' pen).

Frosinone controlled possession (51%) and registered 17 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadio Libero Liberati in Terni.