Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tërbuni Pukë vs Shkumbini Peqin — 1st Division 2019

Tërbuni Pukë
Tërbuni Pukë
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shkumbini Peqin
Shkumbini Peqin
10/17/20211st Division1st Division · Round 5Stadiumi Ismail Xhemali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tërbuni Pukë66%
×Draw21%
Shkumbini Peqin13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tërbuni Pukë
1.97
Shkumbini Peqin
0.74

Tërbuni Pukë creates 166% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 15 away

creates per match

Tërbuni Pukë
1.00
Shkumbini Peqin
0.73

allows per match

Tërbuni Pukë
0.76
Shkumbini Peqin
2.93

finishing

Tërbuni Pukë+0.00on par
Shkumbini Peqin+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tërbuni Pukë ↓

Shkumbini Peqin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tërbuni Pukë or draw
87%
Tërbuni Pukë or Shkumbini Peqin
79%
Draw or Shkumbini Peqin
34%

Winning margin

Tërbuni Pukë wins by 2+
41%
Shkumbini Peqin wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Tërbuni Pukë 1+ goals
86%
Tërbuni Pukë 2+ goals
58%
Tërbuni Pukë 3+ goals
31%
Shkumbini Peqin 1+ goals
52%
Shkumbini Peqin 2+ goals
17%
Shkumbini Peqin 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tërbuni Pukë (draw refunded)
83%
Shkumbini Peqin (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tërbuni Pukë at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.76 · 38 matches

Shkumbini Peqin away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tërbuni Pukë attack 1.00 + Shkumbini Peqin defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 1.97

Shkumbini Peqin attack 0.73 + Tërbuni Pukë defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Tërbuni Pukë scores more
66%
level
21%
Shkumbini Peqin scores more
13%

Tërbuni Pukë at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Tërbuni Pukë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tërbuni Pukë vs Shkumbini Peqin

Tërbuni Pukë and Shkumbini Peqin drew 0-0 in 1st Division on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadiumi Ismail Xhemali in Pukë.