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Shkumbini Peqin vs Tërbuni Pukë — 1st Division 2019

Shkumbini Peqin
Shkumbini Peqin
CANC
13:00
Tërbuni Pukë
Tërbuni Pukë
2/22/20201st Division1st Division · Round 17Stadiumi Shkumbini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shkumbini Peqin35%
×Draw27%
Tërbuni Pukë38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shkumbini Peqin
1.25
Tërbuni Pukë
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 39 away

creates per match

Shkumbini Peqin
1.27
Tërbuni Pukë
0.51

allows per match

Shkumbini Peqin
2.13
Tërbuni Pukë
1.23

finishing

Shkumbini Peqin+0.00on par
Tërbuni Pukë+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkumbini Peqin ↓

Tërbuni Pukë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Shkumbini Peqin or draw
62%
Shkumbini Peqin or Tërbuni Pukë
73%
Draw or Tërbuni Pukë
65%

Winning margin

Shkumbini Peqin wins by 2+
15%
Tërbuni Pukë wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Shkumbini Peqin 1+ goals
71%
Shkumbini Peqin 2+ goals
36%
Shkumbini Peqin 3+ goals
13%
Tërbuni Pukë 1+ goals
73%
Tërbuni Pukë 2+ goals
38%
Tërbuni Pukë 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Shkumbini Peqin (draw refunded)
48%
Tërbuni Pukë (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkumbini Peqin at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Tërbuni Pukë away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkumbini Peqin attack 1.27 + Tërbuni Pukë defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tërbuni Pukë attack 0.51 + Shkumbini Peqin defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shkumbini Peqin scores more
35%
level
27%
Tërbuni Pukë scores more
38%

Tërbuni Pukë at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tërbuni Pukë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shkumbini Peqin face Tërbuni Pukë (1st Division)

1st Division returns with Shkumbini Peqin hosting Tërbuni Pukë. Match starts February 22, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Shkumbini Peqin host Tërbuni Pukë at Stadiumi Shkumbini.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.