Tërbuni Pukë 1–0 Pogradeci: Result & Stats

Tërbuni Pukë

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Pogradeci

12/18/2021

1st Division · Round 14Stadiumi Ismail Xhemali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tërbuni Pukë42%

×Draw29%

Pogradeci29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tërbuni PukëExpected goals in this matchPogradeci

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.95

Tërbuni Pukë

1.21

Pogradeci

0.95

Tërbuni Pukë creates 27% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 73 away

1.00

creates per match

1.15

0.76

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Tërbuni Pukë

1.00

Pogradeci

1.15

allows per match

Tërbuni Pukë

0.76

Pogradeci

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tërbuni Pukë+0.00on par

Pogradeci+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tërbuni Pukë ↓

Pogradeci →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tërbuni Pukë or draw

71%

Tërbuni Pukë or Pogradeci

71%

Draw or Pogradeci

58%

Winning margin

Tërbuni Pukë wins by 2+

18%

Pogradeci wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tërbuni Pukë 1+ goals

70%

Tërbuni Pukë 2+ goals

34%

Tërbuni Pukë 3+ goals

12%

Pogradeci 1+ goals

61%

Pogradeci 2+ goals

25%

Pogradeci 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tërbuni Pukë (draw refunded)

59%

Pogradeci (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tërbuni Pukë at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.76 · 38 matches

Pogradeci away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.41 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tërbuni Pukë attack 1.00 + Pogradeci defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Pogradeci attack 1.15 + Tërbuni Pukë defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tërbuni Pukë scores more

42%

level

29%

Pogradeci scores more

29%

Tërbuni Pukë at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tërbuni Pukë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff