Pogradeci 1–0 Tërbuni Pukë: Result & Stats

Pogradeci

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tërbuni Pukë

4/30/2022

1st Division · Round 29Stadiumi Gjorgji Kyçyku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Pogradeci57%

×Draw27%

Tërbuni Pukë17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PogradeciExpected goals in this matchTërbuni Pukë

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.65

Pogradeci

1.46

Tërbuni Pukë

0.65

Pogradeci creates 125% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 39 away

1.68

creates per match

0.51

0.79

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Pogradeci

1.68

Tërbuni Pukë

0.51

allows per match

Pogradeci

0.79

Tërbuni Pukë

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pogradeci+0.00on par

Tërbuni Pukë+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogradeci ↓

Tërbuni Pukë →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Pogradeci or draw

83%

Pogradeci or Tërbuni Pukë

73%

Draw or Tërbuni Pukë

43%

Winning margin

Pogradeci wins by 2+

29%

Tërbuni Pukë wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Pogradeci 1+ goals

77%

Pogradeci 2+ goals

43%

Pogradeci 3+ goals

18%

Tërbuni Pukë 1+ goals

48%

Tërbuni Pukë 2+ goals

14%

Tërbuni Pukë 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Pogradeci (draw refunded)

77%

Tërbuni Pukë (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogradeci at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.79 · 72 matches

Tërbuni Pukë away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogradeci attack 1.68 + Tërbuni Pukë defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.46

Tërbuni Pukë attack 0.51 + Pogradeci defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Pogradeci scores more

57%

level

27%

Tërbuni Pukë scores more

17%

Pogradeci at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Pogradeci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff