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Tërbuni Pukë vs Maliqi — 1st Division 2019

Tërbuni Pukë
Tërbuni Pukë
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Maliqi
Maliqi
2/27/20221st Division1st Division · Round 21Stadiumi Ismail Xhemali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tërbuni Pukë61%
×Draw23%
Maliqi15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tërbuni Pukë
1.72
Maliqi
0.72

Tërbuni Pukë creates 139% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 16 away

creates per match

Tërbuni Pukë
1.00
Maliqi
0.69

allows per match

Tërbuni Pukë
0.76
Maliqi
2.44

finishing

Tërbuni Pukë+0.00on par
Maliqi+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tërbuni Pukë ↓

Maliqi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tërbuni Pukë or draw
85%
Tërbuni Pukë or Maliqi
77%
Draw or Maliqi
39%

Winning margin

Tërbuni Pukë wins by 2+
35%
Maliqi wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Tërbuni Pukë 1+ goals
82%
Tërbuni Pukë 2+ goals
51%
Tërbuni Pukë 3+ goals
25%
Maliqi 1+ goals
51%
Maliqi 2+ goals
16%
Maliqi 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tërbuni Pukë (draw refunded)
80%
Maliqi (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tërbuni Pukë at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.76 · 38 matches

Maliqi away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tërbuni Pukë attack 1.00 + Maliqi defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.72

Maliqi attack 0.69 + Tërbuni Pukë defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Tërbuni Pukë scores more
61%
level
23%
Maliqi scores more
15%

Tërbuni Pukë at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Tërbuni Pukë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tërbuni Pukë vs Maliqi

Tërbuni Pukë beat Maliqi 3-0 in 1st Division on February 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Ismail Xhemali in Pukë.