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Maliqi vs Tërbuni Pukë — 1st Division 2019

Maliqi
Maliqi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tërbuni Pukë
Tërbuni Pukë
10/23/20211st Division1st Division · Round 6Fusha Sportive Bilisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Maliqi43%
×Draw27%
Tërbuni Pukë30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maliqi
1.35
Tërbuni Pukë
1.09

Maliqi creates 24% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 39 away

creates per match

Maliqi
1.47
Tërbuni Pukë
0.51

allows per match

Maliqi
1.67
Tërbuni Pukë
1.23

finishing

Maliqi+0.00on par
Tërbuni Pukë+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maliqi ↓

Tërbuni Pukë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Maliqi or draw
70%
Maliqi or Tërbuni Pukë
73%
Draw or Tërbuni Pukë
57%

Winning margin

Maliqi wins by 2+
20%
Tërbuni Pukë wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Maliqi 1+ goals
74%
Maliqi 2+ goals
39%
Maliqi 3+ goals
15%
Tërbuni Pukë 1+ goals
66%
Tërbuni Pukë 2+ goals
30%
Tërbuni Pukë 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Maliqi (draw refunded)
59%
Tërbuni Pukë (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maliqi at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Tërbuni Pukë away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maliqi attack 1.47 + Tërbuni Pukë defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.35

Tërbuni Pukë attack 0.51 + Maliqi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Maliqi scores more
43%
level
27%
Tërbuni Pukë scores more
30%

Maliqi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Maliqi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maliqi vs Tërbuni Pukë

Maliqi and Tërbuni Pukë drew 1-1 in 1st Division on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Fusha Sportive Bilisht in Bilisht.