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Tërbuni Pukë vs Korabi Peshkopi — 1st Division 2019

Tërbuni Pukë
Tërbuni Pukë
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Korabi Peshkopi
Korabi Peshkopi
10/22/20221st Division1st Division · Round 7Stadiumi Ismail Xhemali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tërbuni Pukë43%
×Draw30%
Korabi Peshkopi27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tërbuni Pukë
1.15
Korabi Peshkopi
0.84

Tërbuni Pukë creates 37% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 103 away

creates per match

Tërbuni Pukë
1.00
Korabi Peshkopi
0.93

allows per match

Tërbuni Pukë
0.76
Korabi Peshkopi
1.29

finishing

Tërbuni Pukë+0.00on par
Korabi Peshkopi+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tërbuni Pukë ↓

Korabi Peshkopi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tërbuni Pukë or draw
73%
Tërbuni Pukë or Korabi Peshkopi
70%
Draw or Korabi Peshkopi
57%

Winning margin

Tërbuni Pukë wins by 2+
18%
Korabi Peshkopi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tërbuni Pukë 1+ goals
68%
Tërbuni Pukë 2+ goals
32%
Tërbuni Pukë 3+ goals
11%
Korabi Peshkopi 1+ goals
57%
Korabi Peshkopi 2+ goals
21%
Korabi Peshkopi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tërbuni Pukë (draw refunded)
62%
Korabi Peshkopi (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tërbuni Pukë at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.76 · 38 matches

Korabi Peshkopi away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.29 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tërbuni Pukë attack 1.00 + Korabi Peshkopi defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Korabi Peshkopi attack 0.93 + Tërbuni Pukë defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tërbuni Pukë scores more
43%
level
30%
Korabi Peshkopi scores more
27%

Tërbuni Pukë at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tërbuni Pukë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tërbuni Pukë vs Korabi Peshkopi

Tërbuni Pukë beat Korabi Peshkopi 2-1 in 1st Division on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Ismail Xhemali in Pukë.