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Korabi Peshkopi vs Tërbuni Pukë — 1st Division 2019

Korabi Peshkopi
Korabi Peshkopi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tërbuni Pukë
Tërbuni Pukë
12/21/20191st Division1st Division · Round 12Stadiumi Korabi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Korabi Peshkopi53%
×Draw29%
Tërbuni Pukë18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korabi Peshkopi
1.31
Tërbuni Pukë
0.64

Korabi Peshkopi creates 105% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 39 away

creates per match

Korabi Peshkopi
1.39
Tërbuni Pukë
0.51

allows per match

Korabi Peshkopi
0.76
Tërbuni Pukë
1.23

finishing

Korabi Peshkopi+0.00on par
Tërbuni Pukë+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korabi Peshkopi ↓

Tërbuni Pukë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Korabi Peshkopi or draw
82%
Korabi Peshkopi or Tërbuni Pukë
71%
Draw or Tërbuni Pukë
47%

Winning margin

Korabi Peshkopi wins by 2+
25%
Tërbuni Pukë wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Korabi Peshkopi 1+ goals
73%
Korabi Peshkopi 2+ goals
38%
Korabi Peshkopi 3+ goals
14%
Tërbuni Pukë 1+ goals
47%
Tërbuni Pukë 2+ goals
14%
Tërbuni Pukë 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Korabi Peshkopi (draw refunded)
74%
Tërbuni Pukë (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korabi Peshkopi at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.76 · 101 matches

Tërbuni Pukë away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korabi Peshkopi attack 1.39 + Tërbuni Pukë defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31

Tërbuni Pukë attack 0.51 + Korabi Peshkopi defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Korabi Peshkopi scores more
53%
level
29%
Tërbuni Pukë scores more
18%

Korabi Peshkopi at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Korabi Peshkopi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Korabi Peshkopi 1–0 Tërbuni Pukë

Korabi Peshkopi beat Tërbuni Pukë 1-0 in 1st Division on December 21, 2019.

The match was played at Stadiumi Korabi in Peshkopi.