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Tërbuni Pukë vs Besa Kavajë — 1st Division 2019

Tërbuni Pukë
Tërbuni Pukë
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
11/5/20221st Division1st Division · Round 9Stadiumi Ismail Xhemali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tërbuni Pukë42%
×Draw29%
Besa Kavajë29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tërbuni Pukë
1.23
Besa Kavajë
0.98

Tërbuni Pukë creates 26% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 100 away

creates per match

Tërbuni Pukë
1.00
Besa Kavajë
1.20

allows per match

Tërbuni Pukë
0.76
Besa Kavajë
1.46

finishing

Tërbuni Pukë+0.00on par
Besa Kavajë+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tërbuni Pukë ↓

Besa Kavajë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tërbuni Pukë or draw
71%
Tërbuni Pukë or Besa Kavajë
71%
Draw or Besa Kavajë
58%

Winning margin

Tërbuni Pukë wins by 2+
18%
Besa Kavajë wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tërbuni Pukë 1+ goals
71%
Tërbuni Pukë 2+ goals
35%
Tërbuni Pukë 3+ goals
13%
Besa Kavajë 1+ goals
62%
Besa Kavajë 2+ goals
26%
Besa Kavajë 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tërbuni Pukë (draw refunded)
59%
Besa Kavajë (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tërbuni Pukë at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.76 · 38 matches

Besa Kavajë away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.46 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tërbuni Pukë attack 1.00 + Besa Kavajë defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Besa Kavajë attack 1.20 + Tërbuni Pukë defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tërbuni Pukë scores more
42%
level
29%
Besa Kavajë scores more
29%

Tërbuni Pukë at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tërbuni Pukë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Tërbuni Pukë 0–1 Besa Kavajë

Besa Kavajë beat Tërbuni Pukë 1-0 in 1st Division on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Ismail Xhemali in Pukë.