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Besa Kavajë vs Tërbuni Pukë — 1st Division 2019

Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tërbuni Pukë
Tërbuni Pukë
4/3/20221st Division1st Division · Round 25Stadiumi Luz i Vogël

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Besa Kavajë50%
×Draw28%
Tërbuni Pukë21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besa Kavajë
1.34
Tërbuni Pukë
0.76

Besa Kavajë creates 76% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 39 away

creates per match

Besa Kavajë
1.46
Tërbuni Pukë
0.51

allows per match

Besa Kavajë
1.01
Tërbuni Pukë
1.23

finishing

Besa Kavajë+0.00on par
Tërbuni Pukë+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besa Kavajë ↓

Tërbuni Pukë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Besa Kavajë or draw
79%
Besa Kavajë or Tërbuni Pukë
72%
Draw or Tërbuni Pukë
50%

Winning margin

Besa Kavajë wins by 2+
24%
Tërbuni Pukë wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Besa Kavajë 1+ goals
74%
Besa Kavajë 2+ goals
39%
Besa Kavajë 3+ goals
15%
Tërbuni Pukë 1+ goals
53%
Tërbuni Pukë 2+ goals
18%
Tërbuni Pukë 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Besa Kavajë (draw refunded)
70%
Tërbuni Pukë (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besa Kavajë at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.01 · 102 matches

Tërbuni Pukë away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besa Kavajë attack 1.46 + Tërbuni Pukë defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.34

Tërbuni Pukë attack 0.51 + Besa Kavajë defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Besa Kavajë scores more
50%
level
28%
Tërbuni Pukë scores more
21%

Besa Kavajë at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Besa Kavajë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Besa Kavajë vs Tërbuni Pukë

Besa Kavajë beat Tërbuni Pukë 2-0 in 1st Division on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Luz i Vogël in Luz i Vogël.