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Tërbuni Pukë vs Apolonia Fier — 1st Division 2019

Tërbuni Pukë
Tërbuni Pukë
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
2/12/20221st Division1st Division · Round 19Stadiumi Ismail Xhemali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tërbuni Pukë39%
×Draw31%
Apolonia Fier30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tërbuni Pukë
1.08
Apolonia Fier
0.91

Tërbuni Pukë creates 19% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 95 away

creates per match

Tërbuni Pukë
1.00
Apolonia Fier
1.05

allows per match

Tërbuni Pukë
0.76
Apolonia Fier
1.17

finishing

Tërbuni Pukë+0.00on par
Apolonia Fier+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tërbuni Pukë ↓

Apolonia Fier →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tërbuni Pukë or draw
70%
Tërbuni Pukë or Apolonia Fier
69%
Draw or Apolonia Fier
61%

Winning margin

Tërbuni Pukë wins by 2+
16%
Apolonia Fier wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tërbuni Pukë 1+ goals
66%
Tërbuni Pukë 2+ goals
29%
Tërbuni Pukë 3+ goals
10%
Apolonia Fier 1+ goals
60%
Apolonia Fier 2+ goals
23%
Apolonia Fier 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tërbuni Pukë (draw refunded)
56%
Apolonia Fier (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tërbuni Pukë at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.76 · 38 matches

Apolonia Fier away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.17 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tërbuni Pukë attack 1.00 + Apolonia Fier defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Apolonia Fier attack 1.05 + Tërbuni Pukë defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tërbuni Pukë scores more
39%
level
31%
Apolonia Fier scores more
30%

Tërbuni Pukë at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tërbuni Pukë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tërbuni Pukë vs Apolonia Fier

Tërbuni Pukë beat Apolonia Fier 1-0 in 1st Division on February 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Ismail Xhemali in Pukë.