Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Apolonia Fier vs Tërbuni Pukë — 1st Division 2019

Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fieradvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tërbuni Pukë
Tërbuni Pukë
5/14/20221st Division1st Division · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsStadiumi Loni Papuçiu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Apolonia Fier56%
×Draw26%
Tërbuni Pukë18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Apolonia Fier
1.51
Tërbuni Pukë
0.73

Apolonia Fier creates 107% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 39 away

creates per match

Apolonia Fier
1.79
Tërbuni Pukë
0.51

allows per match

Apolonia Fier
0.96
Tërbuni Pukë
1.23

finishing

Apolonia Fier+0.00on par
Tërbuni Pukë+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apolonia Fier ↓

Tërbuni Pukë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Apolonia Fier or draw
82%
Apolonia Fier or Tërbuni Pukë
74%
Draw or Tërbuni Pukë
44%

Winning margin

Apolonia Fier wins by 2+
29%
Tërbuni Pukë wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Apolonia Fier 1+ goals
78%
Apolonia Fier 2+ goals
44%
Apolonia Fier 3+ goals
19%
Tërbuni Pukë 1+ goals
52%
Tërbuni Pukë 2+ goals
17%
Tërbuni Pukë 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Apolonia Fier (draw refunded)
76%
Tërbuni Pukë (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apolonia Fier at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.96 · 90 matches

Tërbuni Pukë away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apolonia Fier attack 1.79 + Tërbuni Pukë defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.51

Tërbuni Pukë attack 0.51 + Apolonia Fier defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Apolonia Fier scores more
56%
level
26%
Tërbuni Pukë scores more
18%

Apolonia Fier at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Apolonia Fier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Apolonia Fier 1–0 Tërbuni Pukë

Apolonia Fier beat Tërbuni Pukë 1-0 in 1st Division on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Loni Papuçiu in Fieri.