Ter Leede 2–3 RKAV Volendam: Result & Stats

Ter Leede

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

RKAV Volendam

9/7/2022

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 6Sportpark De Roodemolen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ter Leede40%

×Draw22%

RKAV Volendam37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ter LeedeExpected goals in this matchRKAV Volendam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.73

Ter Leede

1.81

RKAV Volendam

1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

1.41

creates per match

1.74

1.73

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Ter Leede

1.41

RKAV Volendam

1.74

allows per match

Ter Leede

1.73

RKAV Volendam

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ter Leede+0.00on par

RKAV Volendam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ter Leede ↓

RKAV Volendam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Ter Leede or draw

63%

Ter Leede or RKAV Volendam

78%

Draw or RKAV Volendam

60%

Winning margin

Ter Leede wins by 2+

21%

RKAV Volendam wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Ter Leede 1+ goals

84%

Ter Leede 2+ goals

54%

Ter Leede 3+ goals

27%

RKAV Volendam 1+ goals

82%

RKAV Volendam 2+ goals

52%

RKAV Volendam 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Ter Leede (draw refunded)

52%

RKAV Volendam (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ter Leede at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

RKAV Volendam away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ter Leede attack 1.41 + RKAV Volendam defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.81

RKAV Volendam attack 1.74 + Ter Leede defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ter Leede scores more

40%

level

22%

RKAV Volendam scores more

37%

Ter Leede at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ter Leede will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff