RKAV Volendam 2–2 Ter Leede: Result & Stats

RKAV Volendam

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Ter Leede

2/25/2023

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 23KWABO-stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

RKAV Volendam58%

×Draw19%

Ter Leede23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RKAV VolendamExpected goals in this matchTer Leede

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.43

1.50

RKAV Volendam

2.43

Ter Leede

1.50

RKAV Volendam creates 62% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 45 away

2.50

creates per match

1.53

1.47

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

RKAV Volendam

2.50

Ter Leede

1.53

allows per match

RKAV Volendam

1.47

Ter Leede

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RKAV Volendam+0.00on par

Ter Leede+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RKAV Volendam ↓

Ter Leede →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

RKAV Volendam or draw

77%

RKAV Volendam or Ter Leede

81%

Draw or Ter Leede

42%

Winning margin

RKAV Volendam wins by 2+

37%

Ter Leede wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

RKAV Volendam 1+ goals

91%

RKAV Volendam 2+ goals

69%

RKAV Volendam 3+ goals

43%

Ter Leede 1+ goals

78%

Ter Leede 2+ goals

44%

Ter Leede 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

RKAV Volendam (draw refunded)

71%

Ter Leede (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RKAV Volendam at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

Ter Leede away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RKAV Volendam attack 2.50 + Ter Leede defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.43

Ter Leede attack 1.53 + RKAV Volendam defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

RKAV Volendam scores more

58%

level

19%

Ter Leede scores more

23%

RKAV Volendam at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "RKAV Volendam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff