Ter Leede 0–1 Harkemase Boys: Result & Stats

Ter Leede

FT

0 – 1

Harkemase Boys

10/30/2021

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 10Sportpark De Roodemolen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ter Leede34%

×Draw23%

Harkemase Boys43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ter LeedeExpected goals in this matchHarkemase Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.71

Ter Leede

1.50

Harkemase Boys

1.71

Harkemase Boys creates 14% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 98 away

1.41

creates per match

1.68

1.73

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Ter Leede

1.41

Harkemase Boys

1.68

allows per match

Ter Leede

1.73

Harkemase Boys

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ter Leede+0.00on par

Harkemase Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ter Leede ↓

Harkemase Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Ter Leede or draw

57%

Ter Leede or Harkemase Boys

77%

Draw or Harkemase Boys

66%

Winning margin

Ter Leede wins by 2+

16%

Harkemase Boys wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Ter Leede 1+ goals

78%

Ter Leede 2+ goals

44%

Ter Leede 3+ goals

19%

Harkemase Boys 1+ goals

82%

Harkemase Boys 2+ goals

51%

Harkemase Boys 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Ter Leede (draw refunded)

44%

Harkemase Boys (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ter Leede at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

Harkemase Boys away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.59 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ter Leede attack 1.41 + Harkemase Boys defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.50

Harkemase Boys attack 1.68 + Ter Leede defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ter Leede scores more

34%

level

23%

Harkemase Boys scores more

43%

Harkemase Boys at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Harkemase Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff