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Harkemase Boys vs Ter Leede — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Harkemase Boys
Harkemase Boys
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Ter Leede
Ter Leede
4/23/2022Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 27Sportpark de Bosk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Harkemase Boys53%
×Draw21%
Ter Leede26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Harkemase Boys
2.15
Ter Leede
1.46

Harkemase Boys creates 47% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 45 away

creates per match

Harkemase Boys
1.93
Ter Leede
1.53

allows per match

Harkemase Boys
1.39
Ter Leede
2.36

finishing

Harkemase Boys+0.00on par
Ter Leede+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harkemase Boys ↓

Ter Leede →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Harkemase Boys or draw
74%
Harkemase Boys or Ter Leede
79%
Draw or Ter Leede
47%

Winning margin

Harkemase Boys wins by 2+
32%
Ter Leede wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Harkemase Boys 1+ goals
88%
Harkemase Boys 2+ goals
63%
Harkemase Boys 3+ goals
36%
Ter Leede 1+ goals
77%
Ter Leede 2+ goals
43%
Ter Leede 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Harkemase Boys (draw refunded)
67%
Ter Leede (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harkemase Boys at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.39 · 97 matches

Ter Leede away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harkemase Boys attack 1.93 + Ter Leede defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.15

Ter Leede attack 1.53 + Harkemase Boys defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Harkemase Boys scores more
53%
level
21%
Ter Leede scores more
26%

Harkemase Boys at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Harkemase Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Harkemase Boys 5–1 Ter Leede

Harkemase Boys beat Ter Leede 5-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark de Bosk in Harkema.