Ter Leede vs FC Lisse — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 32+ matches
Ter Leede32%
FC Lisse44%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FC Lisse creates 21% more chances
Season form · 51 home / 32 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over58
- Under42
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ter Leede ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ter Leede at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches
FC Lisse away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ter Leede attack 1.41 + FC Lisse defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.36
FC Lisse attack 1.56 + Ter Leede defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.65
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
FC Lisse at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "FC Lisse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Sparta Nijkerk
HSV ODIN 59
Harkemase Boys
DVS 33 ErmeloFC Lisse
Hoek
Barendrecht
Ajax Amateurs
Excelsior '31
Almere City II
GOES
Vvsb
SteDoCoTer Leede
Dovo
ONS Sneek
VVOG
OSS '20
ADO Den Haag II
OFC Oostzaan
Gemert
Dongen
UNA
EVV
Blauw Geel
Hsc 21
Hercules
DEM
Groene Ster
HV & CV Quick
Westlandia
ADO '20
FC Lienden
HooglandIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ter Leede host FC Lisse on Saturday, 24 October 2020 at 13:00. The match is part of the Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019/2020 season.
Preview: Ter Leede host FC Lisse
October 24, 2020: Ter Leede take on FC Lisse in Derde Divisie - Saturday. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
Ter Leede host FC Lisse at Sportpark De Roodemolen.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.