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FC Lisse vs Ter Leede — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

FC Lisse
FC Lisse
CANC
12:30
Ter Leede
Ter Leede
5/15/2021Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

FC Lisse60%
×Draw19%
Ter Leede21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Lisse
2.37
Ter Leede
1.33

FC Lisse creates 78% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

FC Lisse
2.37
Ter Leede
1.53

allows per match

FC Lisse
1.13
Ter Leede
2.36

finishing

FC Lisse+0.00on par
Ter Leede+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lisse ↓

Ter Leede →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

FC Lisse or draw
79%
FC Lisse or Ter Leede
81%
Draw or Ter Leede
40%

Winning margin

FC Lisse wins by 2+
38%
Ter Leede wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC Lisse 1+ goals
91%
FC Lisse 2+ goals
68%
FC Lisse 3+ goals
42%
Ter Leede 1+ goals
74%
Ter Leede 2+ goals
38%
Ter Leede 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC Lisse (draw refunded)
74%
Ter Leede (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Lisse at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Ter Leede away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Lisse attack 2.37 + Ter Leede defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.37

Ter Leede attack 1.53 + FC Lisse defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

FC Lisse scores more
60%
level
19%
Ter Leede scores more
21%

FC Lisse at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "FC Lisse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Lisse vs Ter Leede — Match Preview

FC Lisse face Ter Leede on May 15, 2021 in this Derde Divisie - Saturday fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.