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Teplice vs Sparta Praha — Czech Liga 2019

Teplice
Teplice
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sparta Praha
Sparta Praha
4/12/2026Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 29AGC Arena Na Stinadlech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Teplice29%
×Draw26%
Sparta Praha45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teplice
1.16
Sparta Praha
1.50

Sparta Praha creates 29% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 119 away

creates per match

Teplice
1.22
Sparta Praha
1.82

allows per match

Teplice
1.19
Sparta Praha
1.09

finishing

Teplice+0.00on par
Sparta Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teplice ↓

Sparta Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Teplice or draw
55%
Teplice or Sparta Praha
74%
Draw or Sparta Praha
71%

Winning margin

Teplice wins by 2+
12%
Sparta Praha wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Teplice 1+ goals
69%
Teplice 2+ goals
32%
Teplice 3+ goals
11%
Sparta Praha 1+ goals
78%
Sparta Praha 2+ goals
44%
Sparta Praha 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Teplice (draw refunded)
39%
Sparta Praha (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teplice at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.19 · 124 matches

Sparta Praha away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.09 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teplice attack 1.22 + Sparta Praha defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.16

Sparta Praha attack 1.82 + Teplice defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Teplice scores more
29%
level
26%
Sparta Praha scores more
45%

Sparta Praha at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sparta Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Teplice vs Sparta Praha

Sparta Praha beat Teplice 1-0 in Czech Liga on April 12, 2026.

The match was played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech in Teplice.