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Sparta Praha vs Teplice — Czech Liga 2019

Sparta Praha
Sparta Praha
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Teplice
Teplice
12/17/2023Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 19epet ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Sparta Praha50%
×Draw26%
Teplice24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Praha
1.50
Teplice
0.95

Sparta Praha creates 58% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Sparta Praha
1.43
Teplice
1.04

allows per match

Sparta Praha
0.86
Teplice
1.57

finishing

Sparta Praha+0.28scores more
Teplice+0.16scores more

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha ↓

Teplice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sparta Praha or draw
76%
Sparta Praha or Teplice
74%
Draw or Teplice
50%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha wins by 2+
25%
Teplice wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sparta Praha 1+ goals
78%
Sparta Praha 2+ goals
44%
Sparta Praha 3+ goals
19%
Teplice 1+ goals
61%
Teplice 2+ goals
25%
Teplice 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha (draw refunded)
68%
Teplice (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Teplice away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.57 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha attack 1.43 + Teplice defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.50

Teplice attack 1.04 + Sparta Praha defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sparta Praha scores more
50%
level
26%
Teplice scores more
24%

Sparta Praha at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sparta Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sparta Praha vs Teplice

Sparta Praha beat Teplice 2-1 in Czech Liga on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at epet ARENA in Praha.