Teplice II 2–3 Hradec Králové II: Result & Stats

Teplice II

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Hradec Králové II

6/1/2024

3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 29Hřiště 2 Na Stínadlech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Teplice II46%

×Draw23%

Hradec Králové II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Teplice IIExpected goals in this matchHradec Králové II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.37

Teplice II

1.74

Hradec Králové II

1.37

Teplice II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 81 away

1.68

creates per match

1.32

1.42

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Teplice II

1.68

Hradec Králové II

1.32

allows per match

Teplice II

1.42

Hradec Králové II

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Teplice II+0.00on par

Hradec Králové II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teplice II ↓

Hradec Králové II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Teplice II or draw

70%

Teplice II or Hradec Králové II

77%

Draw or Hradec Králové II

54%

Winning margin

Teplice II wins by 2+

25%

Hradec Králové II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Teplice II 1+ goals

82%

Teplice II 2+ goals

52%

Teplice II 3+ goals

25%

Hradec Králové II 1+ goals

75%

Hradec Králové II 2+ goals

40%

Hradec Králové II 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Teplice II (draw refunded)

60%

Hradec Králové II (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teplice II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.42 · 78 matches

Hradec Králové II away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.80 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teplice II attack 1.68 + Hradec Králové II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.74

Hradec Králové II attack 1.32 + Teplice II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Teplice II scores more

46%

level

23%

Hradec Králové II scores more

30%

Teplice II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Teplice II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Teplice II vs Hradec Králové II

Hradec Králové II beat Teplice II 3-2 in 3. liga - CFL B on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Hřiště 2 Na Stínadlech in Teplice.

Teplice II vs Hradec Králové II — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Teplice II vs Hradec Králové II