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Hradec Králové II vs Teplice II — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Hradec Králové II
Hradec Králové II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Teplice II
Teplice II
3/1/20263. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Hradec Králové II51%
×Draw23%
Teplice II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hradec Králové II
1.86
Teplice II
1.26

Hradec Králové II creates 48% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 80 away

creates per match

Hradec Králové II
1.70
Teplice II
1.27

allows per match

Hradec Králové II
1.25
Teplice II
2.02

finishing

Hradec Králové II+0.00on par
Teplice II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hradec Králové II ↓

Teplice II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Hradec Králové II or draw
74%
Hradec Králové II or Teplice II
77%
Draw or Teplice II
49%

Winning margin

Hradec Králové II wins by 2+
29%
Teplice II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hradec Králové II 1+ goals
84%
Hradec Králové II 2+ goals
55%
Hradec Králové II 3+ goals
28%
Teplice II 1+ goals
72%
Teplice II 2+ goals
36%
Teplice II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hradec Králové II (draw refunded)
66%
Teplice II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hradec Králové II at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.25 · 79 matches

Teplice II away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.02 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hradec Králové II attack 1.70 + Teplice II defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.86

Teplice II attack 1.27 + Hradec Králové II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hradec Králové II scores more
51%
level
23%
Teplice II scores more
26%

Hradec Králové II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hradec Králové II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL B: Hradec Králové II 1–0 Teplice II

Hradec Králové II beat Teplice II 1-0 in 3. liga - CFL B on March 1, 2026.