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Teplice II vs Chlumec nad Cidlinou — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Teplice II
Teplice II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Chlumec nad Cidlinou
Chlumec nad Cidlinou
3/2/20243. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 16Umělé trávě na Stínadlech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Teplice II45%
×Draw23%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teplice II
1.77
Chlumec nad Cidlinou
1.44

Teplice II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 65 away

creates per match

Teplice II
1.68
Chlumec nad Cidlinou
1.45

allows per match

Teplice II
1.42
Chlumec nad Cidlinou
1.85

finishing

Teplice II+0.00on par
Chlumec nad Cidlinou+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teplice II ↓

Chlumec nad Cidlinou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Teplice II or draw
69%
Teplice II or Chlumec nad Cidlinou
77%
Draw or Chlumec nad Cidlinou
55%

Winning margin

Teplice II wins by 2+
24%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Teplice II 1+ goals
83%
Teplice II 2+ goals
53%
Teplice II 3+ goals
26%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou 1+ goals
76%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou 2+ goals
42%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Teplice II (draw refunded)
59%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teplice II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.42 · 78 matches

Chlumec nad Cidlinou away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.85 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teplice II attack 1.68 + Chlumec nad Cidlinou defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.77

Chlumec nad Cidlinou attack 1.45 + Teplice II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Teplice II scores more
45%
level
23%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou scores more
31%

Teplice II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Teplice II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL B: Teplice II 2–2 Chlumec nad Cidlinou

Teplice II and Chlumec nad Cidlinou drew 2-2 in 3. liga - CFL B on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Umělé trávě na Stínadlech in Teplice.