Chlumec nad Cidlinou 3–4 Teplice II: Result & Stats

Chlumec nad Cidlinou

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Teplice II

10/13/2024

3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 10Městský fotbalový stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Chlumec nad Cidlinou49%

×Draw23%

Teplice II29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chlumec nad CidlinouExpected goals in this matchTeplice II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.38

Chlumec nad Cidlinou

1.86

Teplice II

1.38

Chlumec nad Cidlinou creates 35% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 80 away

1.71

creates per match

1.27

1.48

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Chlumec nad Cidlinou

1.71

Teplice II

1.27

allows per match

Chlumec nad Cidlinou

1.48

Teplice II

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chlumec nad Cidlinou+0.00on par

Teplice II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chlumec nad Cidlinou ↓

Teplice II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Chlumec nad Cidlinou or draw

71%

Chlumec nad Cidlinou or Teplice II

77%

Draw or Teplice II

51%

Winning margin

Chlumec nad Cidlinou wins by 2+

27%

Teplice II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Chlumec nad Cidlinou 1+ goals

84%

Chlumec nad Cidlinou 2+ goals

55%

Chlumec nad Cidlinou 3+ goals

28%

Teplice II 1+ goals

75%

Teplice II 2+ goals

40%

Teplice II 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Chlumec nad Cidlinou (draw refunded)

63%

Teplice II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chlumec nad Cidlinou at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.48 · 65 matches

Teplice II away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.02 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chlumec nad Cidlinou attack 1.71 + Teplice II defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.86

Teplice II attack 1.27 + Chlumec nad Cidlinou defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chlumec nad Cidlinou scores more

49%

level

23%

Teplice II scores more

29%

Chlumec nad Cidlinou at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chlumec nad Cidlinou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff