Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Teplice II vs Arsenal Česká Lípa — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Teplice II
Teplice II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Arsenal Česká Lípa
Arsenal Česká Lípa
11/17/20243. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 15Umělé trávě na Stínadlech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Teplice II44%
×Draw23%
Arsenal Česká Lípa33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teplice II
1.73
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.48

Teplice II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 47 away

creates per match

Teplice II
1.68
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.55

allows per match

Teplice II
1.42
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.77

finishing

Teplice II+0.00on par
Arsenal Česká Lípa+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teplice II ↓

Arsenal Česká Lípa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Teplice II or draw
67%
Teplice II or Arsenal Česká Lípa
77%
Draw or Arsenal Česká Lípa
56%

Winning margin

Teplice II wins by 2+
23%
Arsenal Česká Lípa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Teplice II 1+ goals
82%
Teplice II 2+ goals
52%
Teplice II 3+ goals
25%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 1+ goals
77%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 2+ goals
43%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Teplice II (draw refunded)
57%
Arsenal Česká Lípa (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teplice II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.42 · 78 matches

Arsenal Česká Lípa away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.77 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teplice II attack 1.68 + Arsenal Česká Lípa defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.73

Arsenal Česká Lípa attack 1.55 + Teplice II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Teplice II scores more
44%
level
23%
Arsenal Česká Lípa scores more
33%

Teplice II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Teplice II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL B: Teplice II 3–0 Arsenal Česká Lípa

Teplice II beat Arsenal Česká Lípa 3-0 in 3. liga - CFL B on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Umělé trávě na Stínadlech in Teplice.