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Arsenal Česká Lípa vs Teplice II — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Arsenal Česká Lípa
Arsenal Česká Lípa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Teplice II
Teplice II
3/1/20253. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 32UMT u Ploučnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Arsenal Česká Lípa56%
×Draw22%
Teplice II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.95
Teplice II
1.15

Arsenal Česká Lípa creates 70% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 80 away

creates per match

Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.87
Teplice II
1.27

allows per match

Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.02
Teplice II
2.02

finishing

Arsenal Česká Lípa+0.00on par
Teplice II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Česká Lípa ↓

Teplice II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Arsenal Česká Lípa or draw
78%
Arsenal Česká Lípa or Teplice II
78%
Draw or Teplice II
44%

Winning margin

Arsenal Česká Lípa wins by 2+
33%
Teplice II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Arsenal Česká Lípa 1+ goals
86%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 2+ goals
58%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 3+ goals
31%
Teplice II 1+ goals
68%
Teplice II 2+ goals
32%
Teplice II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Česká Lípa (draw refunded)
72%
Teplice II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Česká Lípa at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.02 · 47 matches

Teplice II away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.02 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Česká Lípa attack 1.87 + Teplice II defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.95

Teplice II attack 1.27 + Arsenal Česká Lípa defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Arsenal Česká Lípa scores more
56%
level
22%
Teplice II scores more
22%

Arsenal Česká Lípa at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Arsenal Česká Lípa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL B: Arsenal Česká Lípa 0–1 Teplice II

Teplice II beat Arsenal Česká Lípa 1-0 in 3. liga - CFL B on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at UMT u Ploučnice in Česká Lípa.