Tepatitlán vs Pumas Tabasco — Liga de Expansión MX 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 50+ matches
Tepatitlán48%
Pumas Tabasco27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Tepatitlán creates 43% more chances
Season form · 105 home / 50 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Tepatitlán ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Tepatitlán at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.92 · 105 matches
Pumas Tabasco away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.60 · 50 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Tepatitlán attack 1.51 + Pumas Tabasco defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.56
Pumas Tabasco attack 1.26 + Tepatitlán defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.09
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Tepatitlán at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Tepatitlán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
CDS Tampico Madero
CancúnTepatitlán
Atlante FC
Monarcas
Mineros de Zacatecas
Irapuato
CA La Paz
Tapatío
Leones Negros UDG
Venados FC
Tlaxcala
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Correcaminos Uat
DoradosIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Tepatitlán host Pumas Tabasco on Thursday, 17 March 2022 at 23:00. The match is part of the Liga de Expansión MX 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Tepatitlán vs Pumas Tabasco
Tepatitlán beat Pumas Tabasco 1-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on March 17, 2022.
The match was played at Estadio Gregorio Tepa Gómez in Tepatitlán de Morelos.