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Pumas Tabasco vs Tepatitlán — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Pumas Tabasco
Pumas Tabasco
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tepatitlán
Tepatitlán
11/11/2021Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 16Estadio Olímpico de Villahermosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Pumas Tabasco34%
×Draw29%
Tepatitlán37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pumas Tabasco
1.11
Tepatitlán
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 107 away

creates per match

Pumas Tabasco
0.78
Tepatitlán
0.98

allows per match

Pumas Tabasco
1.34
Tepatitlán
1.44

finishing

Pumas Tabasco+0.00on par
Tepatitlán+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pumas Tabasco ↓

Tepatitlán →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Pumas Tabasco or draw
63%
Pumas Tabasco or Tepatitlán
71%
Draw or Tepatitlán
66%

Winning margin

Pumas Tabasco wins by 2+
14%
Tepatitlán wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Pumas Tabasco 1+ goals
67%
Pumas Tabasco 2+ goals
30%
Pumas Tabasco 3+ goals
10%
Tepatitlán 1+ goals
69%
Tepatitlán 2+ goals
32%
Tepatitlán 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pumas Tabasco (draw refunded)
48%
Tepatitlán (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pumas Tabasco at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.34 · 50 matches

Tepatitlán away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.44 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pumas Tabasco attack 0.78 + Tepatitlán defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.11

Tepatitlán attack 0.98 + Pumas Tabasco defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Pumas Tabasco scores more
34%
level
29%
Tepatitlán scores more
37%

Tepatitlán at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tepatitlán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pumas Tabasco vs Tepatitlán

Pumas Tabasco and Tepatitlán drew 1-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on November 11, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Villahermosa in Villahermosa.