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Tepatitlán vs Dorados — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Tepatitlán
Tepatitlán
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dorados
Dorados
1/12/2024Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 1Estadio Gregorio Tepa Gómez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Tepatitlán54%
×Draw24%
Dorados22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tepatitlán
1.66
Dorados
0.95

Tepatitlán creates 75% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 122 away

creates per match

Tepatitlán
1.51
Dorados
0.98

allows per match

Tepatitlán
0.92
Dorados
1.80

finishing

Tepatitlán+0.00on par
Dorados+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tepatitlán ↓

Dorados →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tepatitlán or draw
78%
Tepatitlán or Dorados
76%
Draw or Dorados
46%

Winning margin

Tepatitlán wins by 2+
29%
Dorados wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tepatitlán 1+ goals
81%
Tepatitlán 2+ goals
49%
Tepatitlán 3+ goals
23%
Dorados 1+ goals
61%
Dorados 2+ goals
25%
Dorados 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tepatitlán (draw refunded)
71%
Dorados (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tepatitlán at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.92 · 105 matches

Dorados away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.80 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tepatitlán attack 1.51 + Dorados defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.66

Dorados attack 0.98 + Tepatitlán defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tepatitlán scores more
54%
level
24%
Dorados scores more
22%

Tepatitlán at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tepatitlán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Tepatitlán 2–0 Dorados

Tepatitlán beat Dorados 2-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on January 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Gregorio Tepa Gómez in Tepatitlán de Morelos.