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Dorados vs Tepatitlán — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Dorados
Dorados
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tepatitlán
Tepatitlán
3/16/2025Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 10Estadio Caliente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Dorados44%
×Draw26%
Tepatitlán29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dorados
1.42
Tepatitlán
1.10

Dorados creates 29% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 107 away

creates per match

Dorados
1.41
Tepatitlán
0.98

allows per match

Dorados
1.23
Tepatitlán
1.44

finishing

Dorados+0.00on par
Tepatitlán+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dorados ↓

Tepatitlán →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dorados or draw
71%
Dorados or Tepatitlán
74%
Draw or Tepatitlán
56%

Winning margin

Dorados wins by 2+
21%
Tepatitlán wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dorados 1+ goals
76%
Dorados 2+ goals
41%
Dorados 3+ goals
17%
Tepatitlán 1+ goals
67%
Tepatitlán 2+ goals
30%
Tepatitlán 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dorados (draw refunded)
60%
Tepatitlán (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dorados at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.23 · 125 matches

Tepatitlán away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.44 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dorados attack 1.41 + Tepatitlán defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Tepatitlán attack 0.98 + Dorados defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dorados scores more
44%
level
26%
Tepatitlán scores more
29%

Dorados at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dorados will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dorados vs Tepatitlán

Dorados beat Tepatitlán 1-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Caliente in Tijuana.