Tepatitlán 0–1 CA La Paz: Result & Stats

Tepatitlán

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

CA La Paz

11/1/2025

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 14Estadio Gregorio Tepa Gómez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Tepatitlán58%

×Draw22%

CA La Paz20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TepatitlánExpected goals in this matchCA La Paz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.01

Tepatitlán

1.90

CA La Paz

1.01

Tepatitlán creates 88% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 64 away

1.51

creates per match

1.09

0.92

allows per match

2.28

creates per match

Tepatitlán

1.51

CA La Paz

1.09

allows per match

Tepatitlán

0.92

CA La Paz

2.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tepatitlán+0.00on par

CA La Paz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tepatitlán ↓

CA La Paz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Tepatitlán or draw

80%

Tepatitlán or CA La Paz

78%

Draw or CA La Paz

42%

Winning margin

Tepatitlán wins by 2+

34%

CA La Paz wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Tepatitlán 1+ goals

85%

Tepatitlán 2+ goals

56%

Tepatitlán 3+ goals

29%

CA La Paz 1+ goals

64%

CA La Paz 2+ goals

27%

CA La Paz 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tepatitlán (draw refunded)

75%

CA La Paz (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tepatitlán at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.92 · 105 matches

CA La Paz away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.28 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tepatitlán attack 1.51 + CA La Paz defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.90

CA La Paz attack 1.09 + Tepatitlán defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Tepatitlán scores more

58%

level

22%

CA La Paz scores more

20%

Tepatitlán at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Tepatitlán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff