CA La Paz 1–1 Tepatitlán: Result & Stats

CA La Paz

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tepatitlán

4/11/2026

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 14Estadio Guaycura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

CA La Paz47%

×Draw25%

Tepatitlán28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CA La PazExpected goals in this matchTepatitlán

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.19

CA La Paz

1.61

Tepatitlán

1.19

CA La Paz creates 35% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 107 away

1.78

creates per match

0.98

1.41

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

CA La Paz

1.78

Tepatitlán

0.98

allows per match

CA La Paz

1.41

Tepatitlán

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CA La Paz+0.00on par

Tepatitlán+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA La Paz ↓

Tepatitlán →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

CA La Paz or draw

72%

CA La Paz or Tepatitlán

75%

Draw or Tepatitlán

53%

Winning margin

CA La Paz wins by 2+

24%

Tepatitlán wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

CA La Paz 1+ goals

80%

CA La Paz 2+ goals

48%

CA La Paz 3+ goals

22%

Tepatitlán 1+ goals

70%

Tepatitlán 2+ goals

33%

Tepatitlán 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

CA La Paz (draw refunded)

63%

Tepatitlán (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA La Paz at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.41 · 64 matches

Tepatitlán away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.44 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA La Paz attack 1.78 + Tepatitlán defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.61

Tepatitlán attack 0.98 + CA La Paz defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

CA La Paz scores more

47%

level

25%

Tepatitlán scores more

28%

CA La Paz at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "CA La Paz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff