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Tensung vs Daga United — Premier League 2023

Tensung
Tensung
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Daga United
Daga United
8/1/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Lekeythang Football Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Tensung66%
×Draw16%
Daga United17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tensung
2.89
Daga United
1.44

Tensung creates 101% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 9 away

creates per match

Tensung
1.45
Daga United
1.11

allows per match

Tensung
1.77
Daga United
4.33

finishing

Tensung+0.00on par
Daga United+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tensung ↓

Daga United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Tensung or draw
83%
Tensung or Daga United
84%
Draw or Daga United
34%

Winning margin

Tensung wins by 2+
46%
Daga United wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tensung 1+ goals
94%
Tensung 2+ goals
78%
Tensung 3+ goals
54%
Daga United 1+ goals
76%
Daga United 2+ goals
42%
Daga United 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Tensung (draw refunded)
80%
Daga United (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tensung at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.77 · 31 matches

Daga United away — creates 1.11, concedes 4.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tensung attack 1.45 + Daga United defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 2.89

Daga United attack 1.11 + Tensung defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Tensung scores more
66%
level
16%
Daga United scores more
17%

Tensung at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Tensung will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tensung 3–2 Daga United

Tensung beat Daga United 3-2 in Premier League on August 1, 2024.

The match was played at Lekeythang Football Field in Wangdue Phodrang.