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Daga United vs Tensung — Premier League 2023

Daga United
Daga United
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Tensung
Tensung
5/23/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Dagapela Artificial Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Daga United34%
×Draw20%
Tensung47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Daga United
2.04
Tensung
2.40

Tensung creates 18% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 32 away

creates per match

Daga United
1.44
Tensung
1.03

allows per match

Daga United
3.78
Tensung
2.63

finishing

Daga United+0.00on par
Tensung+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daga United ↓

Tensung →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Daga United or draw
53%
Daga United or Tensung
80%
Draw or Tensung
66%

Winning margin

Daga United wins by 2+
18%
Tensung wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Daga United 1+ goals
87%
Daga United 2+ goals
60%
Daga United 3+ goals
33%
Tensung 1+ goals
91%
Tensung 2+ goals
69%
Tensung 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Daga United (draw refunded)
42%
Tensung (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daga United at home — creates 1.44, concedes 3.78 · 9 matches

Tensung away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.63 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daga United attack 1.44 + Tensung defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.04

Tensung attack 1.03 + Daga United defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Daga United scores more
34%
level
20%
Tensung scores more
47%

Tensung at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tensung will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Daga United 0–4 Tensung

Tensung beat Daga United 4-0 in Premier League on May 23, 2024.

The match was played at Dagapela Artificial Turf in Dagapela.