Tennis Borussia vs Eintracht Mahlsdorf — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 44+ matches
Tennis Borussia40%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf38%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 44 home / 76 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over69
- Under31
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes69
- No31
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Tennis Borussia ↓
Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Tennis Borussia at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.77 · 44 matches
Eintracht Mahlsdorf away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.43 · 76 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Tennis Borussia attack 2.20 + Eintracht Mahlsdorf defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.81
Eintracht Mahlsdorf attack 1.75 + Tennis Borussia defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.76
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Tennis Borussia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Tennis Borussia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Tasmania Berlin
Lichtenberg
Hansa Rostock II
Neustrelitz
Union Klosterfelde
SiedenbollentinEintracht Mahlsdorf
Anker Wismar
Makkabi
Sparta Lichtenberg
Optik RathenowTennis Borussia
BAK '07
Dynamo Schwerin
Croatia Berlin
Viktoria BerlinIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Tennis Borussia host Eintracht Mahlsdorf on Friday, 8 November 2024 at 18:30. The match is part of the Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020/2021 season.
Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Tennis Borussia 1–2 Eintracht Mahlsdorf
Eintracht Mahlsdorf beat Tennis Borussia 2-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on November 8, 2024.
The match was played at Mommsenstadion in Berlin.