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Eintracht Mahlsdorf vs Tennis Borussia — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Eintracht Mahlsdorf
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Tennis Borussia
Tennis Borussia
4/26/2026Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 26Sportanlage Am Rosenhag

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Eintracht Mahlsdorf52%
×Draw21%
Tennis Borussia27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Mahlsdorf
2.13
Tennis Borussia
1.48

Eintracht Mahlsdorf creates 44% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 45 away

creates per match

Eintracht Mahlsdorf
2.03
Tennis Borussia
1.60

allows per match

Eintracht Mahlsdorf
1.35
Tennis Borussia
2.22

finishing

Eintracht Mahlsdorf+0.00on par
Tennis Borussia+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Mahlsdorf ↓

Tennis Borussia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Eintracht Mahlsdorf or draw
73%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf or Tennis Borussia
79%
Draw or Tennis Borussia
48%

Winning margin

Eintracht Mahlsdorf wins by 2+
31%
Tennis Borussia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Eintracht Mahlsdorf 1+ goals
88%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 2+ goals
63%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 3+ goals
35%
Tennis Borussia 1+ goals
77%
Tennis Borussia 2+ goals
43%
Tennis Borussia 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Mahlsdorf (draw refunded)
66%
Tennis Borussia (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Mahlsdorf at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.35 · 78 matches

Tennis Borussia away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.22 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Mahlsdorf attack 2.03 + Tennis Borussia defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.13

Tennis Borussia attack 1.60 + Eintracht Mahlsdorf defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Eintracht Mahlsdorf scores more
52%
level
21%
Tennis Borussia scores more
27%

Eintracht Mahlsdorf at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Eintracht Mahlsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eintracht Mahlsdorf vs Tennis Borussia

Eintracht Mahlsdorf and Tennis Borussia drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on April 26, 2026.

The match was played at Sportanlage Am Rosenhag in Berlin.