Tennessee 5–0 North Alabama: Result & Stats

Tennessee

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

North Alabama

5/24/2023

USL League Two · Southern Conference - 3Ravenwood High School soccer filed

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tennessee82%

×Draw11%

North Alabama7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TennesseeExpected goals in this matchNorth Alabama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.27

0.89

Tennessee

3.27

North Alabama

0.89

Tennessee creates 267% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 6 away

1.72

creates per match

0.17

1.60

allows per match

4.83

creates per match

Tennessee

1.72

North Alabama

0.17

allows per match

Tennessee

1.60

North Alabama

4.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tennessee+0.00on par

North Alabama+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tennessee ↓

North Alabama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Tennessee or draw

93%

Tennessee or North Alabama

89%

Draw or North Alabama

18%

Winning margin

Tennessee wins by 2+

64%

North Alabama wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Tennessee 1+ goals

96%

Tennessee 2+ goals

83%

Tennessee 3+ goals

62%

North Alabama 1+ goals

59%

North Alabama 2+ goals

22%

North Alabama 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Tennessee (draw refunded)

92%

North Alabama (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tennessee at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.60 · 25 matches

North Alabama away — creates 0.17, concedes 4.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tennessee attack 1.72 + North Alabama defence 4.83 → ÷2 → 3.27

North Alabama attack 0.17 + Tennessee defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Tennessee scores more

82%

level

11%

North Alabama scores more

7%

Tennessee at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Tennessee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff