North Alabama 2–2 Tennessee: Result & Stats

North Alabama

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Tennessee

6/29/2023

USL League Two · Southern Conference - 13Merrimack Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

North Alabama9%

×Draw14%

Tennessee77%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North AlabamaExpected goals in this matchTennessee

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

2.73

North Alabama

0.83

Tennessee

2.73

Tennessee creates 229% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 25 away

0.50

creates per match

1.28

4.17

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

North Alabama

0.50

Tennessee

1.28

allows per match

North Alabama

4.17

Tennessee

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Alabama+0.00on par

Tennessee+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Alabama ↓

Tennessee →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–211%

0–310%

0–47%

1

1–02%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

North Alabama or draw

23%

North Alabama or Tennessee

86%

Draw or Tennessee

91%

Winning margin

North Alabama wins by 2+

3%

Tennessee wins by 2+

56%

Team goals

North Alabama 1+ goals

56%

North Alabama 2+ goals

20%

North Alabama 3+ goals

5%

Tennessee 1+ goals

93%

Tennessee 2+ goals

75%

Tennessee 3+ goals

50%

Draw no bet

North Alabama (draw refunded)

10%

Tennessee (draw refunded)

90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Alabama at home — creates 0.50, concedes 4.17 · 6 matches

Tennessee away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Alabama attack 0.50 + Tennessee defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.83

Tennessee attack 1.28 + North Alabama defence 4.17 → ÷2 → 2.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

North Alabama scores more

9%

level

14%

Tennessee scores more

77%

Tennessee at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Tennessee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff