Lyseng 1–0 Lystrup: Result & Stats

Lyseng

FT

1 – 0

Lystrup

11/5/2016

Denmark Series - Group 4 · Round 14Lyseng Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lyseng61%

×Draw22%

Lystrup17%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LysengExpected goals in this matchLystrup

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.90

Lyseng

1.90

Lystrup

0.90

Lyseng creates 111% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

2.00

creates per match

0.80

1.00

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Lyseng

2.00

Lystrup

0.80

allows per match

Lyseng

1.00

Lystrup

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lyseng+0.00on par

Lystrup+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyseng ↓

Lystrup →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Lyseng or draw

83%

Lyseng or Lystrup

78%

Draw or Lystrup

39%

Winning margin

Lyseng wins by 2+

36%

Lystrup wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Lyseng 1+ goals

85%

Lyseng 2+ goals

56%

Lyseng 3+ goals

29%

Lystrup 1+ goals

59%

Lystrup 2+ goals

23%

Lystrup 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Lyseng (draw refunded)

78%

Lystrup (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyseng at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Lystrup away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyseng attack 2.00 + Lystrup defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Lystrup attack 0.80 + Lyseng defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Lyseng scores more

61%

level

22%

Lystrup scores more

17%

Lyseng at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Lyseng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff