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Lyseng vs Lystrup — League #127 2026

Lyseng
Lyseng
FT
5 – 1
Lystrup
Lystrup
9/15/2018League #127League #127 · Round 7Lyseng Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lyseng81%
×Draw12%
Lystrup7%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lyseng
3.09
Lystrup
0.85

Lyseng creates 264% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Lyseng
3.33
Lystrup
0.71

allows per match

Lyseng
1.00
Lystrup
2.86

finishing

Lyseng+0.00on par
Lystrup+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyseng ↓

Lystrup →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Lyseng or draw
93%
Lyseng or Lystrup
88%
Draw or Lystrup
19%

Winning margin

Lyseng wins by 2+
62%
Lystrup wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Lyseng 1+ goals
95%
Lyseng 2+ goals
81%
Lyseng 3+ goals
58%
Lystrup 1+ goals
57%
Lystrup 2+ goals
21%
Lystrup 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Lyseng (draw refunded)
92%
Lystrup (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyseng at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Lystrup away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyseng attack 3.33 + Lystrup defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 3.09

Lystrup attack 0.71 + Lyseng defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Lyseng scores more
81%
level
12%
Lystrup scores more
7%

Lyseng at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Lyseng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #127: Lyseng 5–1 Lystrup

Lyseng beat Lystrup 5-1 in League #127 on September 15, 2018.

The match was played at Lyseng Idrætspark in Højbjerg.